Archive for February 11, 2005

Thoughts on North Korean Nuke

I was going to make some comments on Bush’s proposal on the Social Security system, but I guess I’ll let far more knowledgeable and eloquent Dr. George F. Will make the Last Word. The truth lies somewhere between the far right and the far left - no, social security system isn’t going to be bankrupt anytime soon, but yes, it does require some changes to be made… and they should be made earlier on rather than late. I agree with the idea of returning the control of the money back to the people who are putting it into the system. I’ve much rather have a society where people are (for the most parts) responsible for themselves.

The reason why there’s isn’t a lengthier thought on the Social Security is because of Kim Jong-Il’s latest bomb - their admission that they have Nukes. Yes, “Nukes” is the term used by normally eloquent and circumvent Korean Central News Agency. If you think about it, though, this really isn’t anything new. They’ve hinted at this for couple of years now, and by making this announcement, they really haven’t changed any political balance, at least for the time being. Since they’ve stepped out of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, they’ve crossed no legal boundaries either. About the only thing it does is to stir up the media and the people a bit, enough for the Americans and Europeans to notice, and definitely enough to get the citizens in South Korea and Japan to take a note.

Although Bush toned down his rhetoric toward North Korea significantly in the recent speeches, it is clear that this is a warning shot to Bush. I’m sure the North Korean leaders fervently prayed for Kerry to win, but now that they’re faced with 4 more years of Bush and Co - and this time, without Colin Powell - I think it’s their way of saying that US better change its approach toward North Korea. Bush made it very clear that democracy all over the world is one of his highest goals, and this fire of freedom directly affects North Korea. My analysis is that North Korea is just trying to jockey for the best position to allow it to survive for another 4 years until more favourable administration may step in. Although US had been talking to the North Korean government, it’s pretty clear that Bush would much rather do away with Kim Jong-Il instead. This is North Korea’s rather rational reaction of having to face 4 more years - it needs to build up all the advantage it possibly can. Unless one of the things listed below happens sometime soon, I think this announcement is just another small chip that has been thrown on the giant poker table of diplomacy.

However, if North Korea was to follow up this announcement with a nuclear test, it’s another story altogether. One likely scenario is a second arms race and heavily nuclearized Far East. It will get very ugly, very quickly. Another thing to note would be how North Korea handles the pressure from essentially all the other countries in the world. Though they’ve been doing rather well ignoring everyone, some countries like China, cannot be ignored… And if there’s one thing that China doesn’t want is a stockpile of nukes within short missile range of all their cities.

Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how it’ll sort itself out… But Kim Jong-Il’s dictatorship is directly at odds with the freedom and democracy, and it’s a battle that cannot be fully resolved as long as the North Korean dictatorship exists.

“In his inauguration speech, Bush trumpeted that ‘fire of freedom will reach dark corners of the world.’ This is nothing but a plot to engulf the whole world in a sea of war flames and rule it by imposing a freedom based on power,”
-North Korea’s state-run Pyongyang Radio

Well, that’s exactly what US is doing - imposing a freedom, even if it’s a bitter pill for some to swallow…

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